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India’s military studying options for any China war on Taiwan

NEW DELHI – India is studying possible responses to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan following discreet inquiries from the United States on how the South Asian nation could contribute in the event of a war, according to senior Indian government officials.

About six weeks ago, General Anil Chauhan – India’s top military commander – commissioned a study to examine the wider impact of any war over the island that also involves the US and its allies, and what action India could take in response, according to two senior Indian officials, who asked not to be named since discussions are private.

The order came after the US raised the issue in several different forums, they said. 

The study will assess various war scenarios and provide options for India in case a conflict breaks out, they added.

Some Indian military commanders believe that strong statements may suffice as a response in case the war is short, but ultimately that will not be enough if the conflict drags on like Russia’s war in Ukraine, the officials said.

India’s preparation for a potential war over Taiwan shows how its policy of “multi-alignment” will be tested in the event of a drastic deterioration of US-China ties.

Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has forged its own path on international relations, effectively hedging its bets by developing close ties to the US while refusing to join international sanctions on Russia.

Yet tensions with China have also flared along their disputed Himalayan border, contributing to a deterioration in relations that may have prompted President Xi Jinping to skip the Group of 20 summit this weekend in New Delhi.

India has strengthened defence ties with the US in recent years, joining the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue along with Japan and Australia – a band of democracies intent on countering China’s growing influence. 

One option the Indian military will study involves serving as a logistics hub to provide repair and maintenance facilities for allied warships and aircraft, as well as food, fuel and medical equipment for armies resisting China, the officials said.

A more extreme scenario, they added, would assess the potential for India to get directly involved along its northern border, opening a new theatre of war for China.

While no deadline has been set to complete the study, the Indian military is under orders to finish it as soon as possible, one of the officials said.

The options prepared will be available for Mr Modi and other political leaders to make a final call on any action should the need arise, the official said. 

India’s Defence Ministry and Foreign Ministry did not respond to e-mailed questions. The US State Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment. 

India and China have mobilised thousands of troops, artillery guns, tanks and missiles closer to the unmarked border running some 3,500km, roughly the length of the US-Mexico boundary.

Diplomatic talks have yielded little, with China in August releasing a new map claiming India-controlled territory that External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar described as “absurd”.

India has publicly resisted efforts to make the Quad appear like a military alliance, and remains reliant on Russia – China’s most important diplomatic partner – for weapons that would be used in any regional war.

Even so, it has quietly sought better relations with Taiwan: Three former Indian military chiefs who stepped down in the past year all visited Taiwan in August. 

Five years ago, India and the US signed a Logistics-Exchange Memorandum of Agreement, a foundational pact to allow the refuelling and replenishing of warships and of military aircraft, as well as access to bases, when required. BLOOMBERG

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